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美国媒体披露，美国专家曾于去年利用计算机技术模拟推演新型冠状病毒疫情爆发的情况，结论是冠状病毒能够使全球6500万人在18个月内因传染而死亡。

根据报导指出，美国约翰霍普金斯大学健康安全中心（Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security）的科学家托纳，曾针对“冠状病毒感染”进行了全球传染病模拟，而根据他的预测模型，冠状病毒一旦在全球传染开来，后果相当惊人。

报道称，按照托纳推演的结果，冠状病毒将能够在6个月内传播到几乎全球的每一个国家，并且在1年半的时间内导致6500万人死亡。

托纳日前受询时指出，他对于武汉爆发疫情并不意外。

“我有很长时间认为最有可能引发大流行的病毒会是冠状病毒。我们尚未知道它的传染性，但我们知道它能够人传人，只不过不清楚到达什么程度。最初的印象是它的致病性明显较SARS轻微，因此令人不太忧心。但另一方面，它在社区环境当中可能比SARS更易传播。”

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