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花旗警告: 当心未来数月美股“过度繁荣”

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距离圣诞还有不到一周的时间,投资者似乎不愿意把股市推得太高。尽管美股三大指数在周二皆创新高,但涨幅并不大。

一些投资行预测,到2020年初将会出现狂热的购买潮。这在华尔街通常被称为“融涨”(melt-up),指的是一种资产突然上涨,因为投资者因担心错过收益而蜂拥入市。

但花旗策略师发出警告称,如果投资者不小心,所有这些热情可能会过头。

该行资产配置主管杰里米黑尔在一份展望2020年的报告中说,全球经济短期内日益稳定的迹象,以及贸易纠纷的积极进展,可能让一些大型基金经理措手不及。

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简而言之,那些没有过度投资股市、今年错过了标普500指数逾27%涨幅的投资者,可能会被迫在2020年初迎头赶上,大举投资股市。黑尔说,这将有助于创造一种“融涨动力”。

“未来几个月,我们将继续密切跟踪资金流动和过度繁荣的迹象。”

展望过去,黑尔说,当经济在今年下半年开始失去动力时,正如他们所预期的那样,“波动性将再次上升,风险资产将依赖于从更低的贴现率中进一步获得动力”,即央行的宽松政策。

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