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789

大马评信公司预计,马来西亚11月份的整体通胀率维持在1.0%,仅略低于上个月的1.1%。
酒精饮料和和烟草成分的贡献较小,在一定程度上支持了这一小幅下降。
预计12月份的通货膨胀率将保持这一趋势,因此总体平均通货膨胀率预计今年将以0.7%的速度增长,然后在2020年加速至1.9%。
通货膨胀率的上升将主要受到明年一月生效的半岛燃料价格的浮动的推动。
欧佩克和其他产油国最近决定进一步削减每天170万桶石油供应(目前为120万桶/天),显示2020年全球石油价格走势可能存在上行风险。
“明年可能会有一些上行空间,我们的通货膨胀率预测为1.9%,具体取决于欧佩克的额外减产将持续到2020年3月。”
大马评信机构的研究主管吉斯狄娜说“但是,价格上涨的幅度将取决于非欧佩克国家的供应量进入市场并满足全球需求的状态。”
这些抵消力量将抑制潜在的上行空间达到我们对全球油价的最初预期,进而导致国内通货膨胀压力。
根据我们估算,布伦特平均价格每上涨5美元,原油将改变2020年整体通胀率约0.3个百分点。
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MYR 110.00 /Day
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