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美国全国商业经济协会7日发布的调查结果显示，多数经济学家认为贸易摩擦是美国经济的主要威胁，预测今年经济成长率将放缓至2.3%。

调查结果显示，高达81%的受访经济学家认为美国经济面临进一步放缓风险，高过6月份时的60%。超过一半经济学家认为，贸易政策是今明两年美国经济面临的主要风险。参与调查的经济学家预测，今明两年美国经济增速将降至2.3%和1.8%，都低过6月时的预测。

他们认为，贸易政策特别是对华贸易摩擦的负面影响正蔓延至更广泛的经济领域，侵蚀企业信心，导致企业投资减少以及制造业、服务业等关键指标疲弱。

调查结果预测，反映企业投资的非住宅类固定资产投资今年增速为2.9%，明年则放缓至2.1%。同时，美国经济从2020年和2021年中期开始衰退的可能性分别高达24%和69%，很大程度上将取决于消费者支出是否依然强劲。

经济学家还认为，贸易政策无法实现美国政府缩小巨额贸易逆差的目标。由于出口增速或从去年的3%降至0.1%，预计今年贸易逆差将从去年的9200亿美元增至9810亿美元，并在2020年达到1.022兆美元。