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789

新冠肺炎疫情何时结束,没人可以断言。
中国新冠肺炎确诊人数连日下降,各省市在中央要求下陆续复工。
支付宝前首席分析师戴庆祝利用大数据建立预测模型,预测多省疫情将于2月29日结束,重灾区湖北武汉疫情则在4月结束,与中国国家卫健委高级别专家组组长钟南山早前的预测相似。
他以病毒传染强弱的指标R0(Reproduction Number),估算每名患者能传染多少人,包括武汉在内,所有省市的R0已跌至低于1,即每个患者会传染少于1人,意味疫情将逐渐消退。
安徽、江西及浙江及湖南的疫情将于本月29日结束。重庆、四川、江苏及上海疫情将于下月5日结束,全中国疫情除湖北外,基本在下月10日结束。
他指出,武汉市此前最大的问题,是许多患者未能及时收治,但随着新领导班子到位,采取“不漏一户,不漏一人”的政策,防疫形势已经出现可喜的变化。
武汉每日新增确诊人数已迎来了拐点,而R0亦在本月17日降至0.83。
无论如何,有关预测遭到不少网民嘲讽,有人称“最好病毒懂得配合”、“意思是3月10日后不用戴口罩?”
找工作, 就找这里!
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MYR 3K /Month
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