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世界卫生组织(WHO)顾问、顶尖传染病科学家隆尼尼表示，新冠肺炎疫情的最遭情况就是全球三分之二的人口都可能遭受感染。

隆尼尼是接受媒体访问时，如是指出。

隆尼尼追踪新型冠状病毒在中国的传播性研究，估计最终的感染人数可能会比当前官方统计数据的约6万人，高出数十亿。

根据隆尼尼的模型数据显示，每个感染者通常传染给另外两人至三个人。虽然采取隔离措施的确可能减缓传播速度，但病毒有机会在措施生效前，在中国及其他地区传播。由于缺乏快速检测和部分人的感染症状相对温和，也造成了难以追踪该病毒的传播情况。

隆尼尼说，即使有办法将传播速度减少一半，仍然意味全世界约有三分之一的人口将被感染。除非传播性发生变化，否则监测和遏制手段的作用也仅止于此。隔离病例和密切接触者不会阻止病毒的传播。

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