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789
锺南山指不排除出现超级传播者。
由国家卫健委高级别专家组组长锺南山领衔撰写的《中国2019年新型冠状病毒感染的临床特征》周日(9日)在网上发表,该篇论文回顾了来自全中国31省市区、共1099宗病例,推断新型冠状病毒的潜伏期最长可达24天,且不排除有俗称“毒王”的超级传播者存在。
论文指出,研究的病例中有43.95%为武汉当地居民,其余均为外地人,后者当中有26%未在近期前往武汉或曾接触患者,仅1.18%患者与野生动物有过直接接触。上述情况印证最近的媒体报道,如家族聚集性发病、无症状感染者传播、3阶段暴发模式等出现。
在临床特征方面,入院时接受肺部CT检查的840名患者中,有76.4%表现为肺炎,其中82.1%出现淋巴细胞减少,36.2%血小板减少,而严重病例会有白细胞减少症、淋巴细胞减少症、血小板减少症、C反应性升高蛋白水平等。
锺南山等人在论文中表示,和之前在期刊《刺针》(The Lancet,大陆译《柳叶刀》)上发表的两项研究相比,基于更大的样本量和在全国各地招募的病例,最新研究得出的病死率明显变低,只有1.4%。当计入广东的试点数据时,病死率更低至0.88%,原因是广东采取了有效的预防措施。
锺南山指,目前最关键的是确诊病例增加的比率,若是比率持续下降,那就表明疫情形势出现好转。
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