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英国科学杂志《自然》周五出版了集合多地专家建议的文章，推测是次武汉肺炎疫情的走势。

文章提到，专家认为最差的情况将会是中国湖北省武汉市最多有19万人染病，而武汉肺炎可能变成风土病。

香港大学流行病学家高本恩表示，最好的情况是防疫措施渐渐发挥作用，感染人数日渐下降，但武汉肺炎的潜伏期长达14天，现阶段仍未能确定防疫措施是否有效。

另有研究指出，最差的情况为单是武汉已有19万人染病，甚至于中国以外的地区爆发。目前全球多国也有确诊个案，但中国以外的个案总共少于150宗。

文章提到，若不能成功控制疫情，武汉肺炎很有可能变成风土病，每年爆发造成死亡，而且目前出现无病征个案，如证实无病征的病人也能传染他人，疫情将更难控制，演变成风土病的机会更高。

*何为风土病？：风土病或称地方病，既地方性流行病（Endemic），在流行病学中，意指毋须从外界输入，便能在当地人口之间，持续出现的疾病。

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