星期六 2025年 10月 04日
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美国银行:债券市场泡沫消退 或触发下一次衰退

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美国银行的策略师表示,最有可能引发美国经济在2020年代下滑的催化剂将是当前债市的泡沫消退。

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策略师Tommy Ricketts和Michael Hartnett等周一在报告中指出逾11兆美元债券的收益率为负,德国/瑞士国债收益率曲线为负,奥地利100年期国债收益率约为1%,以及全球收益率刚脱离最低纪录点。

未来几年,各央行像“推绳子”一样徒劳无功,这种“政策无能”趋势的开始,将是可能导致利率波动性上升的一个因素,结束长达十年的“最低利率-最高利润”看涨组合,并且暗示“资产价格的大顶”。

另一个因素将是政策失误,如现代货币理论的实施,即政府发债直至通膨上升。
美国银行建议通过黄金、美国国库券、实质资产而非金融资产对冲债市泡沫破裂的情形。

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