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美国银行的策略师表示，最有可能引发美国经济在2020年代下滑的催化剂将是当前债市的泡沫消退。

策略师Tommy Ricketts和Michael Hartnett等周一在报告中指出逾11兆美元债券的收益率为负，德国/瑞士国债收益率曲线为负，奥地利100年期国债收益率约为1%，以及全球收益率刚脱离最低纪录点。

未来几年，各央行像“推绳子”一样徒劳无功，这种“政策无能”趋势的开始，将是可能导致利率波动性上升的一个因素，结束长达十年的“最低利率-最高利润”看涨组合，并且暗示“资产价格的大顶”。

另一个因素将是政策失误，如现代货币理论的实施，即政府发债直至通膨上升。
美国银行建议通过黄金、美国国库券、实质资产而非金融资产对冲债市泡沫破裂的情形。

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