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管理资产逾2400亿美元的古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特米纳德警告说，该公司的衰退预测模型显示，美国经济在2020年年中陷入衰退的几率达58%，未来两年开始衰退的几率达77%。

米纳德还说，历史表明，一旦古根海姆的衰退几率模型达到目前的水平，“积极的政策行动可能延缓衰退，但不能避免衰退。”

他在给客户的一份研报中表示，谷歌海姆预计特朗普政府将继续使用更宽松的货币政策，为“更激进的贸易政策开绿灯”。

他指出，美联储主席鲍威尔明确引用了贸易政策作为降息的依据，这可能在美联储降息与贸易冲突升级之间形成一个反馈回路。

周三美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至1.75%至2.00%。
米纳德表示：“如果核心通膨率向2%回升，一些美联储官员可能:会更有力地抵制进一步降息。”

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