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双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）首席执行员、有“新债王”之称的杰弗里冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）周四表示，预计明年美国总统大选前，美国经济衰退的几率为75%，高过6月时估计的65%。

他指出，收益率曲线出现40基点的倒挂，其后通常会出现问题，收益率曲线会开始再度陡斜。美联储将要降息，但衰退命运已接近被确定。

他对股市看法较淡，继续唱好黄金，直言进入负利率的债券数量持续增加，投资者都希望转持有较债券回报理想的资产，金价可持续上扬。

冈拉克在6月份时曾表示，美国经济未来6个月内陷入衰退的可能性已升至40-45%，未来一年内陷入衰退的可能性高达65%。

冈拉克彼时表示，收益率曲线和纽约联储衰退概率模型都显示衰退的可能性在上升。

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