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经济学家目前预计，美联储今年将多次降息，与投资者的观点相同，但双方看法仍有相差。

6月20至24日接受调查的受访者表示，他们预计美联储将分别在9月和12月降息25个基点。在上周的联邦公开市场委员会会议前，类似的调查显示，经济学家们预计年内仅降息一次，幅度为25个基点。

经济学家对美联储宽松政策的预期比投资者更加谨慎；市场押注，宽松周期将从7月开始，年底前总计降息幅度将达75个基点。

美联储上周维持利率不变，但是为最早7月份降息敞开了大门。在会后声明中，官员们承诺将会关注新公布的数据，并“酌情妥善行动，维系经济的扩张”。

经济学家们也基本排除了在美联储决定降息时，会选择降息50个基点的可能性。在36位受访者中，只有3位表示，他们预计会有50个基点的降息幅度。

受访者还排除了特朗普会将美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔降级的想法；特朗普屡屡批评鲍威尔将利率维持在过高水平。如果特朗普采取这一举动，过半受访者表示，金融市场的反应将“非常负面”。

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