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野村证券预期下周四美联储利率决议和政策声明：美联储将按兵不动并为7月降息造势。

自从美联储5月会议以来，美国经济动能已经放缓，主要是因财政刺激效果持续消退和金融环境维持在相对紧缩状态。

此外，随着贸易保护主义带来的不确定性增加以及国外经济增长放缓，美国经济前景下行风险上升。美联储可能会提高警惕，避免犯下类似去年12月的错误（当时市场因美联储鸽派程度不及预期而作出了负面反应）。

我们预计此次美联储将释放信号，为7月降息作准备。具体来说，我们预计美联储6月将按兵不动，7月和12月分别降息25个基点。