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双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）首席执行员、有“新债王”之称的杰弗里冈拉克周四表示，美国经济未来6个月内陷入衰退的可能性已升至40-45%，未来一年内陷入衰退的可能性高达65%。

冈拉克表示，收益率曲线和纽约联储衰退概率模型都显示衰退的可能性在上升。

他说：“有几个指标表明经济衰退可能在一年内发生，因消费者指数正指向“衰退的前沿”。

冈拉克表示，美联储可能不会在6月份降息，但可能在今年夏季晚些时候降息。

冈拉克亦表示，如果政府不参与对债券收益率的操纵，到2021年10年期国债收益率将升至6%。他此前一直预计10年期国债收益率在下次总统大选或一年之后将升至6%。

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